Re: Hazardous Conditions for the Auto Industry Nearly a million would amount to 12,000,000 annually. Back in the day they
only sold 8,000,000 annually and there were only six manufactures and nearly
50% were sold by GM. Now there are 22, looks like it is a buyers market if
one needs a new car or truck
"Jim Higgins" <gordian238@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:t9ednbzY0OldjXjVnZ2dnUVZ_uqdnZ2d@posted.eagle computertechnology...
> Hazardous Conditions for the Auto Industry
> http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/bu...=1&oref=slogin
>
> DETROIT — For the first time since 1993, automakers sold fewer than a
> million new cars and trucks in a single month in the United States, as a
> reeling economy scared people away from showrooms in September, and many
> eager buyers were unable to get loans.
>
> With industry sales dropping 26.6 percent over all compared with a year
> ago, car companies are likely to cut more production and jobs to
> compensate for falling revenues.
>
> The credit crisis contributed heavily to the steep decline — analysts
> estimated that it cost the industry up to 100,000 vehicle sales in the
> final week of the month, on top of lost sales because of high gas prices
> and the shaky economy.
>
> Auto executives said Wednesday that the industry faced more misery ahead
> until a bailout package was passed in Washington.
>
> “We feel it is critical,” said Michael C. DiGiovanni, chief sales
> analyst for General Motors. “If it doesn’t happen, it’s going to set off
> a continuing downward spiral in the economy.”
>
> Nearly every automaker posted double-digit declines. Sales were down
> 34.5 percent at the Ford Motor Company, 32.8 percent at Chrysler, 32.3
> percent at Toyota and 24 percent at Honda.
>
> G.M. bucked the trend somewhat with only a 15.6 percent drop in sales.
> *But it was helped by employee pricing deals offered to all consumers
> and an increase in sales to rental car fleets.* [emphasis added]
>
> Over all, the industry sold about 964,000 vehicles in September compared
> with 1.31 million in the same month a year earlier, according to the
> research firm Autodata. There were 24 selling days this September
> compared with 25 a year ago.
>
> “This is the worst point we have seen in 15 years,” said Jesse Toprak,
> head of industry analysis for the automotive Web site Edmunds.com. “And
> it is likely to be even worse in the month of October.”
>
> Mr. Toprak said that sales for the entire year were projected to about
> 14 million vehicles, by far the lowest figure in more than a decade.
>
> “There’s no question this is an automotive recession,” said Erich
> Merkle, an analyst at the accounting and consulting firm Crowe Horwath
> in Grand Rapids, Mich. “It’s going to take us a long time before we get
> back to that 16 million mark.”
>
> Automakers said that tighter lending practices by banks had prevented
> countless consumers from getting financing deals for new vehicles.
> Moreover, they say the paralysis in Washington on a bailout bill and the
> startling failures of Wall Street investment banks have frightened away
> even creditworthy consumers.
>
> At Toyota, the year-to-year sales drop was the worst the Japanese
> automaker has experienced in the United States in 20 years.
>
> “There is a lack of consumer confidence,” said Donald V. Esmond, senior
> vice president for Toyota’s North American sales operations. “They’ve
> got their hand on their wallet, and they’re not spending their
> disposable income.”
>
> The drop-off in sales across the industry occurred despite a nearly 19
> percent increase in incentives from a year earlier. The average
> automaker incentive during the month was $2,801, compared with $2,357 in
> September of 2007, according to Edmunds.com.
>
> Automakers said there had been a drastic decline in dealership traffic
> toward the end of the month, when the troubles on Wall Street caused a
> full-blown economic crisis.
>
> “During the last 10 days of the month it was extremely weak,” said
> George Pipas, a market analyst at Ford. “It was tantamount, really, to a
> natural disaster.”
>
> Executives at the Detroit automakers declined to say whether they were
> planning further production cuts in the fourth quarter to balance the
> shrinking demand.
>
> But analysts said further cuts and reorganization moves appeared
> inevitable.
>
> “We believe we will see an increase in promotional activity to stimulate
> demand, as well as a reduction in production volumes,” Mr. Toprak said.
>
> Detroit has already cut tens of thousands of jobs since 2006. Many of
> its assembly plants have been idled for weeks at a time this year to
> reduce production of slow-selling pickup trucks and sport utility
> vehicles.
>
> G.M., Ford and Chrysler are also burning through billions of dollars in
> cash reserves to finance new products, even as their businesses falter.
> G.M. lost $15.5 billion in its second quarter, and Ford lost $7.8 billion.
>
> The credit squeeze is also hitting dealers hard. Ford, for example, is
> increasing the cost of loans to dealers to pay for new-vehicle
> inventories.
>
> Nearly 600 of the nation’s 20,770 franchised new-car dealerships have
> closed their doors this year, according to the National Auto Dealers
> Association.
>
> And the view from the showroom floor is getting gloomier each day that
> the financial crisis goes unresolved in Washington.
>
> Michael Futrell, general manager of Champion Chevrolet in Tallahassee,
> Fla., said car shoppers seemed overwhelmed by the weak economy, tight
> credit, the Wall Street crisis and uncertainty surrounding the
> presidential election.
>
> “People want to buy, but they just don’t want to pull the trigger until
> they know who’s going to be in office and what this economy is going to
> do,” Mr. Futrell said. “What the consumer doesn’t understand is that
> there’s probably not a better time to buy a car. The deals are out
> there, but I think everybody’s so skeptical that they’re trying to hold
> off.”
>
> When gasoline prices hit $4 a gallon this year, consumers mostly backed
> away from buying larger vehicles in favor of more fuel-efficient
> passenger cars.
>
> But vehicles of all sizes went begging in September — sales of light
> trucks dropped 31 percent, while cars fell 21 percent, according to
> Autodata.
>
> “We don’t anticipate seeing recovery in the industry until we can get
> some recovery in housing,” said Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with the
> consulting firm Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. “The consumer has
> gone from being nervous and uncertain to just downright scared.”
>
> The steady slide in sales has left automakers wondering whether the
> worst is yet to come.
>
> “We are looking at a very fragile economy,” said Emily Kolinski-Morris,
> Ford’s chief economist. “I don’t think anyone can say where the bottom
> might be.”
>
>
> --
> Civis Romanus Sum
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