Truckdude wrote:

> Watch a McCain rally. McCain is imploding all on his own. Just as long as
> the attacks are answered right away, there is no need to sink to McCain's
> level.

Well Kerry's campaign thought the same thing, and look where that got
him. T. Boone Pickens' Swift Boat lie ad campaign had the necessary
effect. Kerry wasn't so far ahead as Obama, but a change of just 5% of
the voters in each of the swing states would give McCain a victory.

McCain needs to transfer these states to his column:

Florida: Obama 50%, McCain 46%
Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 46%
Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 45%
Either West Virginia (Obama 50%, McCain 42%) or Nevada (Obama 50%,
McCain 46% (he can win in a tie of 269-269).

McCain also needs to hold on to Indiana and North Carolina. He also
needs to win Missouri (currently a tie)

Obama just needs to hold on to Florida or Ohio or Virginia or Colorado
or West Virginia+Nevada, or take Indiana or North Carolina or Missouri.

There's two opposite effects working on the polls. First, the polls are
all down by telephone, and only to landlines. A lot of young people have
no landline, and they heavily lean Obama. Second, the Bradley effect
where people that won't vote for Obama because he's black (they
generally have no other reason) will say they're voting for him but don't.